Sorry to burst your bubble, but all those alternatives are so much hot air. They sound great, and on a small scale they work great, but they simply aren't the solution to the problem, nor are they themselves REALLY sustainable, not on any big scale.

You mentioned biodesiel, so I'll use that. Say that every commercial truck, van and vehicle in use today was converted to biodesiel....there simply isn't enough farmland to both feed us and those tens of thousands of vehicles. And thats not factoring in the private trucks and cars, just the ones that transport vital goods from one place to another.

And what happens when your tractor busts a tie rod or the axle cracks? Industry can't make any more because without oil there is no way to mine, transport, sort and smelt the iron to make it into steel.

Nuclear power you say? Well how is that going to work when uranium is getting harder and harder to find, just like oil. Not to mention, you can't put a nuclear reactor in a car and expect to run to the corner store.

There is also the matter of oil derivatives. So many things are made from these, that when they are gone, a BIG chunk of society goes with them. No more plastic, the problems with bio-plastic are the same as will bio-desiel, not enough farmland. No more plastic means that food storage and transportation will go from vacum-packed, deep-freezed items to Bell-Jar canned foods and good old-fashion root cellars.

Solar is nice, but what happens when the oil is gone? No more plastic to make the cells, no power for the plants that make the cells, and no way to transport them to your house or local Home Depot. One good hailstorm and your solar panels are nothing more that colorful trash.

Solar Collectors are just a matter of painting pipes and water-collection vats black, so they are quite sustainable. Course they only work well after several hours in the hot sun, not to mention that without regular treatments with chemicals, they become a breeding ground for noxious bacteria, like any hot, stagnent water.

Wind power is great, when the wind is blowing and you are able to keep your batteries up to specs. And sooner or later your generator will fritz out. Where will you get the parts to fix it when industry no longer has power to fire up its copper smelters and aluminum extraction is a thing of the past?

Sorry to sound harsh, but this is all true. Unless we can find a cheap, portable powersource that can give us the same return ratio as oil, about five units gained to one unit used, then life will become very simple compared to what it is now.

Your line sounds good. But, there are some serious holes.
PV panels (Solar panels heat water. Those who really know what they are talking about use the correct terms.) have an increadable resistance to hail. I have a 5K system on my house (where the Santana winds can get to 80mph, so don't talk about them blowing off the roof... you missed that one!) No damage from wind, or flying branches that have hit them.
I also have a 250W system on my motorhome. Those who have PV panels are amazed at the resistance to hail. I know a few Motorhomers who were caught in baseball hail in TX a short wile ago. They climbed onto their roofs, sure that their panels were destroyed. There was no damage!
So, that's pretty much out the window. I do know one guy who sells panels. He opened a box one time & found a crack in the corner of 1 panel. He used it in his own array. The functionality was not effected & it's been working nicely for 4 yrs.
As to BD... I'm not proposing that "every commercial truck, van and vehicle in use today was converted to biodesiel". In the 1st place... you don't convert anything to BD. You only have to make modifications (do a conversion) for WVO, not BD. Again, you sure sound good, but you don't know what you're talking about. I'm just saying that there are some of us who are doing it. We take the waste from restaraunts & run our vehicles on it (after processing it some.)

I didn't say you should do it. I'd suggest that you get a bicycle. But.... we could extend the supply of petrol we have, giving us time to find a good alternative. I plan to actually take some steps toward that, in my own small way w/ PV electricity & BD. You can just sit back & complain... I'm just the pro-active type. I will critize, but I try to make my critizism constructive. You should just go get a bicycle.

I'm not going to suggest that anyone support the use of nuclear generated power. I've always thought it interesting that some people insist on blow drying their hair before going off to protest the new neuclear power plant going online. They don't know what they're doing any more than you know what you're talking about.

evelyn

Belive me, I do know what I'm talking about. When I first heard about Peak Oil, I thought it was a bunch of crap. But after alot of reading, I have a good idea what this world is in for.

You think your panels will last forever? Nope, the maximum life for a panel, a good modern one is about 20 years, with a fail/burn out rate set at a more realistic 10 years. Without oil, or an equivilent power source for factories to run on, they are an endangered species. Batteries are about the same, a good deep-cycle battery is rated at about 20 years, but most will fail at about 15.

Many vehicles can be converted to BD. It mainly involves a revamping of the fuel lines and a specilized carb. If we don't convert every commercial vehicle, then what? You propose we extend the supply of petroleum. That doesn't solve the problem, it will still run out. (Unless you buy into that abiotic oil jazz.) We can't fuel all those cars, trucks and planes with BD. A large percentage of the population would go hungry because a big chunk of the farmland would be used to created BD, not food.

What waste from resturants? Remember, those commercial transports are lying dead by the side of the road, the resturants don't have the food to sell to people so they don't have any waste for you to convert.

I don't want a bicycle, I want a good horse! Not only can it get me from one spot to another, but it can jazz up the garden. And I don't know of any bicycle that can make little bicycles.

You may call me pessimistic, but please don't ever say I don't know what I'm talking about. I refuse to hide my head under the sand and say that wind, water, sun and atomic power will carry civilization through this, they won't. Unless VAST new reserves of oil are found, or some type of cheap and fairly portable power is found, then the world of man is in for a gradual but devestating change.

The situation is not quite hopeless. A very good reference is the September edition of Scientific American magazine. Biodiesel is the most promising of alternative fuels for long distance highway driving. When your average driving distance is shorter, say 30 miles per day like 85% of all Americans a plugin electric hybrid with the backup motor fueled by biodiesel is a better option. The nice thing about a plugin hybrid is that most of the types of renewable energy are gathered as electricity.One of the promising energy forms is the high altitude wind mills developed by MaGennPower of Canada. These are large baloons that catch the wind at 1000 feet up. At that altitude the winds are a lot stronger and more consistant. The only land required is just enough to fasten the anchoring cable. Some of the best winds are in the Dakotas and along the coastal waters. Of the coast of Mississippi we have many oil and gas rigs already. The baloon generators could be anchored to these drilling platforms and not be in anybodies backyard. They would kill fewer birds than conventional wind mills and be cheaper to purchase and operate. Another coastal type of power is tidal power. Look up the Pelagris system developed by a Scottish company. We will however have to have the will for California, Florida, and the New England states put these none polluting devices in their coastal waters. It is only fair for them to share in some energy production.
About not having land to grow crops for biodiesel, there are hundreds of thousands of acres of fallow farmland in my home state alone. Farmers quit farming them because they couldn't make a living. Would we rather pay our own farmers or Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, or Russia?
About plastic we did fine without it for many generations and we can do so again.
I could go on for a long time but it would save trouble if people would just go to the library and look at the magazines.

Ok, one more then I'm outta here for tonight. I have no doubts that we can find ways to provide some power for the world that doesn't rely on oil. But producing electricity is only the tiniest part of the problem. You talked about hybrid cars, well I'm all for them, but creating one hybrid vehicle actually creates more toxic waste that one comparable standard car! This is mostly from creating the batteries.

And while there are millions of reserved acres in the U.S., even if we planted all them with corn and created ethenol plants to create fuel and oil extenders, it would only amount to between 5 and 20 percent of the oil we use today. Thats simply not enough. I know people want to believe that we can survive the future in pretty much the same state we are now, but it won't happen, there are simply too many of us sucking up to many resources.

You are quite right that there are to many people in the world. Most of them are are in third world or developing countries. Western europe, Russia, and Japan are actually having declining populations. The only reason the United States isn't is because of illegal immigration. The third world will either learn that contraception is good or famines and epidemics will result.
About biodiesel, I never said that we would be able to run all the cars on it in the same manner that they are being run today. Most long distance freight and passenger transport will have to be shifted to trains which can be powered by electricity.Freight is allready quietly moving that way. I actually mentioned plugin hybrids, not regular hybrids though they definitely would be Expeditions. Plugin hybrids are for the most part electric cars which only switch to their diesel or gasoline motors when high speeds or long distances are required. The current nickle cadmium batteries used in all the current nonplugin hybrids are completely recyclable as the next generation lithium ion batteries are projected to be.

About planting corn and soybeans enough to make a differece, do you really believe that the U.S. will be the only people to adopt these technolgies? China rips off our technology every chance they get. Iran's worst nightmare is mass produced Chinese hybrid cars on the world wide market. The Chinese don't like to pay through the nose for oil either.

We do need to stop sinking our development money into hydrogen fuel cell cars though. They don't have an immediate enough impact. Also hydrogen is made by cracking water with electricity or by treating natural gas. More efficient to just use the electricity or the natural gas. It reminds me of the nuclear fusion reactors and space based solar energy arrays . Thirty years ago when I was in high school they were suppose to be just thirty years away. Well they are still just thirty years away.

quote:

Originally posted by Locke:
Belive me, I do know what I'm talking about. .....
You think your panels will last forever? Nope, the maximum life for a panel, a good modern one is about 20 years, with a fail/burn out rate set at a more realistic 10 years.

My panels are rated for 25 yrs

quote:

... Batteries are about the same, a good deep-cycle battery is rated at about 20 years, but most will fail at about 15.

I dont' use batteries.

quote:

Many vehicles can be converted to BD. It mainly involves a revamping of the fuel lines and a specilized carb.

Interesting.... I didn't have to do a thing to 'convert' the vehicle I already run on BD. My freinds in Missouri, who got me into it didn't do a thing to convert their dino-desiel vehciles to BD. Sorry, you might want to think the sky is falling, but you're not going to take me w/ you & I hope no one else believes your BS. Because you obviously DON'T know what you're talking about. If you did then you would know there is no conversion for a vehicle that was designed to run on dino-desiel to run it on BD. It's being done... already.

quote:

I don't want a bicycle, I want a good horse! Not only can it get me from one spot to another, but it can jazz up the garden. And I don't know of any bicycle that can make little bicycles.

But a bicycle can make electricty. I already have several good horses. & 2 pregnant mares.

>Belive me, I do know what I'm talking about.

>Many vehicles can be converted to BD. It
>mainly involves a revamping of the fuel lines
>and a specilized carb.

Interesting.

Please explain the theory of operation of a diesel engine and especially the role the carburetor plays in that process.

I'd also be curious, even assuming you're confusing ethanol with bio-diesel, which vehicles you're planning to swap the carburetor on? There's been no new cars sold in the U.S. since 1990 that had a carb.

Nothing will bring down prices today except a tipping point in perception. Getting off and doing something to increase out petroleum supplies would be an improvement. Letting Cuba drill the Gulf is about par for the course. Any speculation in petroleum markets is justified by our record of ignorance in defining a cogent energy policy. And now our U.S presidential candidates Obama and McCain are talking about it, the issues surrounding recent discussions on US offshore drilling for oil has significant impact for all Americans. US Offshore Oil Drilling- McCain vs. Obama

quote:

Originally posted by MeowMom:
I just saw a documentary about peak oil with my husband the other day and it really got us thinking (and a bit concerned). Do you really think it is going to be as bad as some are saying it will be?

If so, I'm thinking a big veggie garden, some mean ol' dogs and a shot gun might be in order to keep my maters safe!

Preparedness?? It is just insurance.

There are all degrees of preparedness I used to be short term survivor, now am working towards long term.

It is just insurance for the seen and unseen problems that face us.

One buys insurance all the time without knowing if they will really need it.

We got other problems right in line with peak fish and food We got peak water, peak uranium, peak crude oil and peak NG to name a few.

Have you ever thought about how much of our life is dependent on natural gas for cooking, heating and hot water?

How many of our homes are set up for efficient heating with natural methods such as wood, pellet, passive solar?

My house is not.

I never gave this subject any thought until I learned about peak natural gas. And by then it was too late.

My house is as far as it can be from the 'ideal house' that can be heated my natural methods. And to make maters worse, I live in the NE US, where it gets plenty cold.

Do you know that much of your life is dependent on natural gas outside its use as an energy source?

We will run out of natural gas, just as we deplete our crude supplies in the near future.

http://www.amazon.com/High-Noon-Natural-Gas-Energy/dp/1931498539

Natural gas is a raw material in many of our products we depend on.

Almost all the helium we produce comes from natural gas.

Propane, synthetic fertilizers, ammonia?

They are totally dependent on natural gas.

Our population boom was fueled by synthetic fertilizers made from natural; gas. Once the gas dries up so does the fertilizer and a shortage of fertilizer equals a shortage of food.

Natural; gas is also used as an energy source to produce steel, glass, paper, clothing, brick, electricity

http://www.enotes.com/how-products-encyclopedia/natural-gas

http://www.ipm.iastate.edu/ipm/icm/2003/4-14-2003/natgasn.html

http://www.eia.doe.gov/kids/energyfacts/sources/non-ren...html#WHATITISUSEDFOR

You still have some valuable time left to prepare for what awaits you down the road.

We are in the 'Indian Summer' of a carbon based world. Don't wait until the winter sets in to start work on your preparedness efforts.

quote:

Originally posted by rAstahgurL:
Nothing will bring down prices today except a tipping point in perception. Getting off and doing something to increase out petroleum supplies would be an improvement. Letting Cuba drill the Gulf is about par for the course. Any speculation in petroleum markets is justified by our record of ignorance in defining a cogent energy policy. And now our U.S presidential candidates Obama and McCain are talking about it, the issues surrounding recent discussions on US offshore drilling for oil has significant impact for all Americans. US Offshore Oil Drilling- McCain vs. Obama

I feel sorry for Obama or who ever gets in.

And if the roof doesn't fall on him or her, the next pres wills surely get hit with it.

And what do we do when things go bad? They blame it all on the pres.

Like he or she can pull crude and NG out their ass?

Sure oil goes up and down with the BS they hand us. Some of the BS is just greedy excuses. Other times the BS is not BS and based in truth.

But, no matter how we cut it, fossil fuels are a non renewable resource and we are using 31 billion barrels a year of crude worldwide...and usage will only gets worse as time goes by....'Chindia' is just starting out!

Maybe I should not feel bad for politicians. After all they are ego based power hungry individuals. I imagine they all know about peak oil. They probably view it as a game of musical chairs. Give me power for a day and I only hope the roof falls in on the next guy and the music wont stop on my presidency.

quote:

Originally posted by Locke:
Ok, one more then I'm outta here for tonight. I have no doubts that we can find ways to provide some power for the world that doesn't rely on oil. But producing electricity is only the tiniest part of the problem. You talked about hybrid cars, well I'm all for them, but creating one hybrid vehicle actually creates more toxic waste that one comparable standard car! This is mostly from creating the batteries.

And while there are millions of reserved acres in the U.S., even if we planted all them with corn and created ethenol plants to create fuel and oil extenders, it would only amount to between 5 and 20 percent of the oil we use today. Thats simply not enough. I know people want to believe that we can survive the future in pretty much the same state we are now, but it won't happen, there are simply too many of us sucking up to many resources.

Absolutely!

Even if we did find out how to burn water for energy, petrochemicals make up a large portion of crude's importance to mankind. Roughly 9% of every barrel of crude goes to petrochemical use.

If we stopped burning crude this instant, we would still suck the wells dry, albeit not as quickly, just from petrochemical use.

Some work has been done with making plastics from corn, but it can't touch the variety of plastic and rubber products that crude produces.

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/plastic.html

So even if we all stop driving we will just be postponing the inevitable that our artificial way of living is going to change in the not so distant future.

A partial list of products made from crude:

Solvents Diesel Motor Oil Bearing Grease
Ink Floor Wax Ballpoint Pens Football Cleats
Upholstery Sweaters Boats Insecticides
Bicycle Tires Sports Car Bodies Nail Polish Fishing lures
Dresses Tires Golf Bags Perfumes
Cassettes Dishwasher Tool Boxes Shoe Polish
Motorcycle Helmet Caulking Petroleum Jelly Transparent Tape
CD Player Faucet Washers Antiseptics Clothesline
Curtains Food Preservatives Basketballs Soap
Vitamin Capsules Antihistamines Purses Shoes
Dashboards Cortisone Deodorant Footballs
Putty Dyes Panty Hose Refrigerant
Percolators Life Jackets Rubbing Alcohol Linings
Skis TV Cabinets Shag Rugs Electrician's Tape
Tool Racks Car Battery Cases Epoxy Paint
Mops Slacks Insect Repellent Oil Filters
Umbrellas Yarn Fertilizers Hair Coloring
Roofing Toilet Seats Fishing Rods Lipstick
Denture Adhesive Linoleum Ice Cube Trays Synthetic Rubber
Speakers Plastic Wood Electric Blankets Glycerin
Tennis Rackets Rubber Cement Fishing Boots Dice
Nylon Rope Candles Trash Bags House Paint
Water Pipes Hand Lotion Roller Skates Surf Boards
Shampoo Wheels Paint Rollers Shower Curtains
Guitar Strings Luggage Aspirin Safety Glasses
Antifreeze Football Helmets Awnings Eyeglasses
Clothes Toothbrushes Ice Chests Footballs
Combs CD's Paint Brushes Detergents
Vaporizers Balloons Sun Glasses Tents
Heart Valves Crayons Parachutes Telephones
Enamel Pillows Dishes Cameras
Anesthetics Artificial Turf Artificial limbs Bandages
Dentures Model Cars Folding Doors Hair Curlers
Cold cream Movie film Soft Contact lenses Drinking Cups
Fan Belts Car Enamel Shaving Cream Ammonia
Refrigerators Golf Balls Toothpaste Gasoline

From this list we can see that we are still massively depend on crude for our non sustainable lifestyle.
There is no replacement for crude...crude is in the details of our life.

quote:

Originally posted by Locke:
Belive me, I do know what I'm talking about. When I first heard about Peak Oil, I thought it was a bunch of crap. But after alot of reading, I have a good idea what this world is in for.

You think your panels will last forever? Nope, the maximum life for a panel, a good modern one is about 20 years, with a fail/burn out rate set at a more realistic 10 years. Without oil, or an equivilent power source for factories to run on, they are an endangered species. Batteries are about the same, a good deep-cycle battery is rated at about 20 years, but most will fail at about 15.

Many vehicles can be converted to BD. It mainly involves a revamping of the fuel lines and a specilized carb. If we don't convert every commercial vehicle, then what? You propose we extend the supply of petroleum. That doesn't solve the problem, it will still run out. (Unless you buy into that abiotic oil jazz.) We can't fuel all those cars, trucks and planes with BD. A large percentage of the population would go hungry because a big chunk of the farmland would be used to created BD, not food.

What waste from resturants? Remember, those commercial transports are lying dead by the side of the road, the resturants don't have the food to sell to people so they don't have any waste for you to convert.

I don't want a bicycle, I want a good horse! Not only can it get me from one spot to another, but it can jazz up the garden. And I don't know of any bicycle that can make little bicycles.

You may call me pessimistic, but please don't ever say I don't know what I'm talking about. I refuse to hide my head under the sand and say that wind, water, sun and atomic power will carry civilization through this, they won't. Unless VAST new reserves of oil are found, or some type of cheap and fairly portable power is found, then the world of man is in for a gradual but devestating change.

Ever wonder why politicians are sooo scared to even utter the words PEAK OIL?

No doubt some of the increase in crude is due to greed, speculation and hype. And, it may all be true that what we have been told about peak oil is in fact a hoax.

Same as the skeptics that claim global warming is a hoax.

It may all be a conspiracy, just a cruel trick on the consumer to line the pockets of industry with more money...only time will settle this debate

http://www.prisonplanet.com/archives/peak_oil/index.htm

http://www.conspiracyplanet.com/channel.cfm?channelid=63&contentid=2097

http://aftermathnews.wordpress.com/2007/05/31/mike-ruppert-and-peak-oil/

http://www.energybulletin.net/4466.html

The top 3 users of crude are the US, China and Japan.

They consume almost 12 billion barrels of crude a year ( 11,987,330,000 barrels) .

Collectively the world uses 31 billion barrels of oil a year (31,015,410,000)

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ene_oil_con-energy-oil-consumption

If the Peak Oil skeptics think the supply of fossil fuel is limitless and we can keep on burning billions upon billions of barrels a year of crude forever, then they are sadly mistaken.

I always tell the proponents saying peak oil is a conspiracy and think that we have an unlimited amount of oil, natural gas, coal, uranium...actions speak louder than words.

We can look at Hubbert's prediction of the USA's peak.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

He was exactly right.

We can look at global oil production and see what the general trend is.

Look at the UK and other countries like the US that had been energy exporters in their heyday. Now they are all energy importers.

See:

http://www.oilcrashmovie.com/

We can look at the trend in drilling to see how deep we have to go to find oil. How many big finds are being made?

We can look at the quality of crude being produced.

Is it light sweet crude or high sulfur, heavy, hard to refine crude?

The light sweet is just that 'light' and is on the surface of the oil pool. Whereas the less desirable heavy sulfated crude is on the bottom of the pool. Does the phrase hitting the bottom the barrel mean anything to you?

Lately we have been putting much of our hope in the tar sands of Canada.

When we have to get the oil out of the sand and shale it sounds like we are hitting the bottom of the barrel again. Even talk about getting our gas from refining bitumen coal.

Now, some people say we are saving the light sweet crude for national defense and using the foreign oil and tar sands first. I don't know, I have no inside information about that claim.

We get about 15% of our natural gas from Canada. That 15% amounts to 50% of the natural gas Canada produces. The US sucks down more energy than any other country...no one can come close to us.

Our demands for natural gas are on the rise, just as our demands are for all fossil fuels. Once demand outstrips production we are headed over Hubert's peak in any number of areas besides crude. We can see peak production issues in natural gas, uranium, food or water, just as we will see with crude oil.

It is an easy task to see how much oil is produced in the world. But finding the 'exact peak date' for world oil production is hard to pinpoint. (see peak oil section)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crude_oil

For one thing, some countries production are erratic and they are not transparent with their real production and discovery data.

Also oil production is not an exact science and still requires a little luck. We may find a lucky hit down the road that brings in a gusher to distort some of the figures.

No one knows the exact peak date for world oil production, but we do know that time will come in the not so distant future. But finding the peak is not hard problem once we can look back on it by a few years....but we need some time to do it...again, only time will settle this debate.

"If the public does think briefly about future oil supplies, the question usually asked is, "How long will oil last?" This is the wrong question. Oil will be extracted in some insignificant quantity perhaps 200 years from now. The critical question is: When does the peak of world oil production occur?" ~ Richard C. Duncan

Check out:

Beyond Oil: the view from Hubbert's Peak
by Deffeyes, Kenneth S.
http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/

The Coming Economic Collapse - how you can thrive when oil costs $200 a barrel
by Leeb, Stephen

A Crude Awakening - the oil crash
Lava Productions AG, Switzerland DVD
http://www.oilcrashmovie.com/

The End of Suburbia - oil depletion and the collapse of the American dream
by Greene, Gregory DVD
http://www.endofsuburbia.com/

High Noon for Natural Gas: the new energy crisis
by Darley, Julian
http://www.highnoon.ws/

The Long Emergency: surviving the converging catastrophes of the twenty-first century
by Kunstler, James Howard

Oil Apocalypse
History channel DVD

Peak Oil Survival: preparation for life after gridcrash
by McBay, Aric

Powerdown: options and actions for a post-carbon world
by Heinberg, Richard

Resource Wars: the new landscape of global conflict
by Klare, Michael T
http://www.amazon.com/Resource-Wars-Landscape-Conflict-...uction/dp/0805055762

A Thousand Barrels a Second: the coming oil break point and the challenges facing an energy dependent world
by Tertzakian, Peter

Twilight in the Desert: the coming Saudi oil shock and the world economy
by Simmons, Matthew R.
Well written book examining 12 of the key Saudi oil fields.

Who Killed the Electric Car?
Sony Pictures Classics release
http://www.sonyclassics.com/whokilledtheelectriccar/

Zoom:the global race to fuel the car of the future
by Iain Carson and Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran.

Also see:

http://www.worldoil.com/INFOCENTER/STATISTICS_DETAIL.as...=_worldoilproduction

http://hubbert.mines.edu/

http://www.mnforsustain.org/duncan_and_youngquist_encir...,%20And%20The%20Peak