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"Peak Oil" is a theory that we will hit a certain maximum rate (barrels per day) of oil we can pump out of the ground, after which the rate we can pump will decline until no recoverable oil is left.
Given that these are (predominantly) fossil fuels, it will happen.
The timeline for it, and exactly what you consider oil, can vary. Substantially. For instance, do we count methane hydrates the same as petroleum? They're virtually identical to natural gas, but not from fossil fuel.
M. King Hubbert proposed the theory in the 1950s that the U.S. would hit "peak oil" domestically around 1970. We hit our maximum domestic output in 1974 and have declined since.
While often cited as proof of the theory, I personally believe that's a little simplistic -- since in early 1970s we imposed numerous environmental regulations on top of the already relatively high domestic production costs that discouraged further domestic exploration. Exploration largely shifted to areas that oil could be produced cheaper due to lower labor costs / safety standards / environmental standards / taxes / dictatorships / etc.
As to Allenwrench, he's gotten under the skin and is now actively antagonizing several members here. It may even be mutual, but I haven't followed the threads closely, so I can't tell you the details.
I used to be fairly neighborly to him, now I'm simply ignoring him.
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Hi gardenfairy, No one started out disliking him, and frankly, I still don't dislike him. The problem is a 2 parter. First, during the last election, there were very bitter arguments over politics. It got so nasty that the Organic Gardening magazine editor let it be known that shutting down the site had been discussed. In the end, politics were banned for the good of the forum, and many of us decided to try to make conciliatory posts when members started to get ticked off at one another. Second, allenwrench has been told this, knows that a great many of us do not want a repeat of last election season...and continues to make political posts. That is just flat disrespectful to our host, OG magazine, and to those of us who've tried (politely at first) to let him know it is inappropriate. I think of this forum as being like a long-running garden party, and of OG as our host. If someone starts telling offensive jokes at a party and is asked to stop, but doesn't...well, others at the party are going to be annoyed with him. As for peak oil, as I understand it, that is when oil production hits its highest possible production rate, and then starts winding down because the oil reserves have simply been depleted to that point that the production rate cannot be maintained. At that point, it will become more and more difficult/expensive to produce oil and the price will rapidly rise far beyond the reach of the typical person. The big concern is that peak oil will occur before alternative forms of energy have been properly developed and that the skyrocketing costs will cripple the transportation of goods in this country. How will we buy clothes, groceries, etc, if it is too expensive for the manufacturers to ship them to stores? In order to remain in business, the manufacturers will have to raise prices dramatically to cover the cost of shipping. That may well put most goods out of reach of the typical consumer. Worst case scenario would be so many businesses folding under the inability to produce and ship goods at a price customers can afford, that a second Great Depression would be sparked. Does that help a little?
__________________________ {=^;^=} Living the good life amid the wildlife.
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| Posts: 832 | Location: Out in the sticks in Zone 6/Southwestern KY | Registered: November 27, 2004 |    |
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quote: Originally posted by thatgardenfairy: So, he's basically preaching a political opinion? Well, he had a right to that I guess.
I think you may be just be unaware that our hosts have asked us to not discuss political issues here as some have proven themselves incapable of civil discourse. So, you are wrong, he has no right to preach a political opinion here. It is not only his repeated cutting and pasting of the same material in any thread he wishes to hijack, he has also attacked a candidate for the Presidency that I have grown to admire. Out of respect for our hosts, I will refrain from responding to his ludicrous claims. He will behave as the rest of us are expected to. Wayne ~ Added ~ Kitty posted as I was about to post mine.
Where there are gardens and bicycles, there is hope.
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| Posts: 1368 | Location: Zone 4a, transplanted to the hills of Western Maine. | Registered: October 07, 2005 |    |
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quote: Originally posted by Matt from CT: "Peak Oil" is a theory that we will hit a certain maximum rate (barrels per day) of oil we can pump out of the ground, after which the rate we can pump will decline until no recoverable oil is left.
Given that these are (predominantly) fossil fuels, it will happen.
The timeline for it, and exactly what you consider oil, can vary. Substantially. For instance, do we count methane hydrates the same as petroleum? They're virtually identical to natural gas, but not from fossil fuel.
M. King Hubbert proposed the theory in the 1950s that the U.S. would hit "peak oil" domestically around 1970. We hit our maximum domestic output in 1974 and have declined since.
While often cited as proof of the theory, I personally believe that's a little simplistic -- since in early 1970s we imposed numerous environmental regulations on top of the already relatively high domestic production costs that discouraged further domestic exploration. Exploration largely shifted to areas that oil could be produced cheaper due to lower labor costs / safety standards / environmental standards / taxes / dictatorships / etc.
As to Allenwrench, he's gotten under the skin and is now actively antagonizing several members here. It may even be mutual, but I haven't followed the threads closely, so I can't tell you the details.
I used to be fairly neighborly to him, now I'm simply ignoring him.
While you have peak down pretty well, and it is your right to discount it, you are wrong about 'antagonizing several members here.' "I haven't followed the threads closely, so I can't tell you the details."... sums it up with your wrong view Matt. What I have been doing is defending myself. As for ignoring me? Your choice. I have no reason to ignore my neighbor, for we all share the same breath. If I see he or her has a problem, I will ask if I can help. And I am thankful for all your help in the past Matt. Next time round, before rearranging your prejudices, make an attempt to seek the truth my friend - I attack no one, but I will defend myself. No doubt I don't have the time to answer all complaint against me. But as I am extremely fast typist and as i have lots of text files that apply to the control sickness this forum suffer from, I will do my best to answer such complaints. Whatever the forum members would like to do is fine with me. We can all be free to share our opinions or not share and you can attack me and I will answer the attacks. Flexibility and adaptation are two characteristics of the successful survivalist devotee, so either was if fine with me. Let me give you a little more background about myself and online censorship. Out of the 300+ forums I have been on, I have been banned from about 70% of them due to prejudice. The vast majority of these forums have been dedicated to personal improvement as well as spiritual studies. Yet I have never had one fight or was abusive with anyone. What was my crime? Searching for truth. Now with Christian forums it is 100% ban rate and Buddhist forums is 95% ban and atheist forums it is about 95% ban. But this ignorance is universal 'human' in nature, just as we can see here with our gardener friends. Psychologist William James once said, "A great many people believe they are thinking when they are merely rearranging their prejudices." Let me give you an example that has happened to me in the past. In the bible it says "Test everything; hold fast to what is good; abstain from every form of evil," (1 Thess. 5:21) Taking from Christian, Buddhist and most other religions of the world I discuss such tools in my posts no matter their source. When I talked about this 'concept of testing' and related it to the Buddha's tool of testing doctrine, but included this bible quote above, I was banned by the Buddhists. Yet the Buddha also encouraged testing of his teachings before adopting those teachings. At a Christian forum, when I brought up the Buddha encourages testing just as it was said in the bible, the Christian forums banned me. Then at the atheist forums when I mention the Bible and the Buddha both offered the tools of testing to help determine truth, the atheist sites ban me. Yet, all three groups like the idea of testing for truth, as long as this idea comes from them and not from anyone else...many people believe they are thinking when they are merely rearranging their prejudices. Alan Watts use to say we define ourselves by our enemies. We define ourselves by what we are not. He used the example of 'Beatniks and Squares' which were the in fad opposites back in his day. So of course it is natural for these groups to view themselves as polar opposites and enemies of sorts. Same as the 'left and right' does in American politics. We should always be interested in finding truth and peace. If our way is not working then some other way may help. It is good to test and see the results and not get caught up in prejudice blocking the way. For with such tests, 'the proof of the pudding will be in the eating' and decisions on how to live will not be left only to your ego, but will be grounded in peace. The three unwholesome roots of delusions, greed and hate are very basic to a a Buddhist practice. Out of these three, delusion is the foundational root, for without seeing delusions for what they are, you cannot distinguish the other two unwholesome roots of greed and hate. People suffer from delusions in all form and not just deity worship. Atheism, while freeing ones mind to think, but it does not guarantee one thinks right and acts right. This is the importance of replacing wrong religious beliefs with right thinking and right living. For instance, I was banned from many 'so called' Buddhist sites such as Esangha, Tricycle, Shambhala, Buddha Chat, 12 step Buddhists, Sangha-Pauahtun, eBuddhism, etc even though I have a keen interest in Buddhism. Some people claiming to be Buddhist think all they have to is shave their heads, adopt a silly name, be a vegetarians and burn incense to be a Buddhists...all the while they are doing great harm to others, Which is how it is with many Buddhist forums that are 'for profit' and run by 'spiritually sick' individuals. Currently, it is a sad state of affairs with such online Buddhist groups. I've been on dozens of Christian forums and I have perfect record at the Christian forums...100% banned...and I was a Christian myself at that time I tried to join them years ago. I was able to finagle my way back into one Christian forum though: http://www.christianforums.com/index.phpBut I could only stay if I claimed to be an atheist...and I do not post much and keep my mouth shut...and if I do post it has to be something non consequential. Also I am not allowed to post with the Christians. I can only post to the atheists. I like that forum as it reminds me of the 'sickness of attachment,' so that is why I put up with all the prejudice. At that forum you can 'buy your armor' to outfit your avatar to shield you from evil and 'trade blessings' with each other....well you can see how much I like avatars. The Billy Graham and Catholic forums banned me after my first posts...then they solicit me for months on end asking for money. I don't know whether to laugh or cry? Charity? Humility? Reciprocity? Freedom of Faith? Truth? And of course...Love Thy Neighbor as Thyself???? I'm afraid Christians don't practice what they preach...at least at their forums. (Even the Buddhist whose mantra is 'Do No Harm' ban me 95% of the time at their forums, so they are only a little better than the Christians.) Atheist forums are not much better at freethinking. Been banned at evil bible dot com, ethical atheist, Internet infidels, X-Christians and others. How do I find peace with all this prejudice? By knowing "With the same material one man builds a palace and another only a hovel." Russell Cromwell. And accepting people are not perfect, nor am I perfect which is just as the Taoists tell us: "fleas come with the dog." Always remember...the difference between an authority and an authoritarian is this. An authority speaks from a place of truth and such speaks as an authority. Whereas an authoritarian rules by fear and not by truth. For the truth stands on it own and the authoritarian stands on their ego.
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| Posts: 835 | Location: NE US | Registered: February 11, 2008 |    |
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quote: Originally posted by CountryKitty: Hi gardenfairy,
No one started out disliking him, and frankly, I still don't dislike him. The problem is a 2 parter. First, during the last election, there were very bitter arguments over politics. It got so nasty that the Organic Gardening magazine editor let it be known that shutting down the site had been discussed. In the end, politics were banned for the good of the forum, and many of us decided to try to make conciliatory posts when members started to get ticked off at one another.
Second, allenwrench has been told this, knows that a great many of us do not want a repeat of last election season...and continues to make political posts. That is just flat disrespectful to our host, OG magazine, and to those of us who've tried (politely at first) to let him know it is inappropriate.
I think of this forum as being like a long-running garden party, and of OG as our host. If someone starts telling offensive jokes at a party and is asked to stop, but doesn't...well, others at the party are going to be annoyed with him.
As for peak oil, as I understand it, that is when oil production hits its highest possible production rate, and then starts winding down because the oil reserves have simply been depleted to that point that the production rate cannot be maintained. At that point, it will become more and more difficult/expensive to produce oil and the price will rapidly rise far beyond the reach of the typical person.
The big concern is that peak oil will occur before alternative forms of energy have been properly developed and that the skyrocketing costs will cripple the transportation of goods in this country. How will we buy clothes, groceries, etc, if it is too expensive for the manufacturers to ship them to stores? In order to remain in business, the manufacturers will have to raise prices dramatically to cover the cost of shipping. That may well put most goods out of reach of the typical consumer. Worst case scenario would be so many businesses folding under the inability to produce and ship goods at a price customers can afford, that a second Great Depression would be sparked.
Does that help a little?
While I have no problem with the majority of your recount. I was absolutely not ever told anything about politics being a taboo subject. If you look at my join date it was in 2/08, so how could I ever know what happened here during the last elections? Now, I don't have the time to read every and all post here. If it was mentioned in passing, I did not read it. Many times I post a topic and open it up fro discussion among the forum and don't get back to it in a timely fashion. I am busy with other things and let the forum discuss it among themselves. But, if a ban on political discussion is the case, a sticky message should be posted from OG. Have Beth or whomever post the rules up front. And as for politics? You are free to be a dem or rep - vote or abstain....as you wish. In any case, I don't believe we can blame all this prejudges and hatred on just politics. For my posting history has very few political posts in it. The root of the problem here goes much deeper than politics...it is based in ill will, a lack of humanity and an insobriety of opinion with the few hate filled members that wish to control others. Tired of being angry ? Just relinquish control and anger will be diminished. Accepting others and subscribing to the policy of 'live and let live' can fix this problem. Rage stems from control - relinquish control and you can let go of rage. Again...when we spend our time trying to change others it is a signpost of our own dis-ease.
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| Posts: 835 | Location: NE US | Registered: February 11, 2008 |    |
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quote: Originally posted by adirondackgardener: quote: Originally posted by thatgardenfairy: So, he's basically preaching a political opinion? Well, he had a right to that I guess.
I think you may be just be unaware that our hosts have asked us to not discuss political issues here as some have proven themselves incapable of civil discourse. So, you are wrong, he has no right to preach a political opinion here. It is not only his repeated cutting and pasting of the same material in any thread he wishes to hijack, he has also attacked a candidate for the Presidency that I have grown to admire. Out of respect for our hosts, I will refrain from responding to his ludicrous claims. He will behave as the rest of us are expected to. Wayne ~ Added ~ Kitty posted as I was about to post mine.
As I said before, I hijack no threads. Posting one reply is not hijacking. It was determined that since answering you complaints within threads disrupted its original intention I would answer all complaints in the OT section here...so that is what I will do. I have no intention to hijack a thread a section or a forum. But I will defend myself my friend. You are free to worship any candidate you choose. I would just hope in America I could be free to worship as I please Wayne. Some of us need a distraction to living to help us escape the ugly lives we have created for ourselves Wayne. And politics provides a good escape vehicle for many. Have you ever thought that no matter who you voted in the public got screwed Wayne? Politicians are all cut from the same cloth. A few years ago I read an article in the Wall Street Journal about a con man named Charles Ponzi. He was credited with inventing the first pyramid scheme. The article stated when Ponzi was interviewed he was asked how he was able to swindle so many people so easily, his responded, "When a man's mind is concentrated he is blind." This case of having your mind concentrated to the point of blindness is not anything new. The ancient philosophers new this well. They called it "putting passion before reason" Wayne. In any case, until I see something here official from OG on what is taboo and what is not, I must take what you say with a grain of salt as you few disruptive members have not impressed me with your integrity when it comes to truthfulness. I think this can be summed up with breezy's long list of complaints of topics I discuss that do not agree with her ego.
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| Posts: 835 | Location: NE US | Registered: February 11, 2008 |    |
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quote: Let me give you a little more background about myself and online censorship.
Out of the 300+ forums I have been on, I have been banned from about 70% of them due to prejudice. The vast majority of these forums have been dedicated to personal improvement as well as spiritual studies. Yet I have never had one fight or was abusive with anyone.
What was my crime?
Searching for truth.
Now with Christian forums it is 100% ban rate and Buddhist forums is 95% ban and atheist forums it is about 95% ban.
----------------------------------- And you are proud of this accomplishment? If you are the one getting banned, how come it isn't your fault? Surely you don't think the whole world is prejudiced against you, do you? I think you enjoy getting banned and may be trying for a world record. Were you on a debate team in high school?  How did that work out? Banned?
Muddy knees David! Compost is my friend. Every day I enroll in gardening school. Some days it feels like kindergarten!
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| Posts: 3732 | Location: Oregon-zone 8 | Registered: August 17, 2005 |    |
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quote: Originally posted by Suasoria: ditto to all of the above about political discussions belonging in the OG watchdog board and nowhere else (thus making them easy to ignore by people who don't want to be engaged.
No political discussions anywhere PERIOD Dirt
thenameispit-dirtpit at hotmail dot com
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quote: I've gotten to the point where I don't even want to keep scrolling to see if it will get back on track. The topic becomes more or less dead.
Before I even read your post Suasoria, I had gone up to Go--Personal Zone--Ignore List where he joined matrixgardener. Nothing really against him, it was interesting following his garden threads. But the long diatribes made it too difficult to follow threads, like this one, they were in.
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